Bitcoin pinned at near 2-year lows, lags as equities surge in Q2
It’s a clear “crypto winter” this summer. While equities delivered one of their strongest quarters in six years, with the Nasdaq rising around 21% from late March to June, Bitcoin – typically a high‑beta risk proxy – failed to keep pace. After an early Q2 rally, prices reversed sharply, ending firmly in negative territory. From the May peak near $82,815 to the June 30 low around $58,170, Bitcoin dropped over 29%, leaving it down around 14% for the quarter.
Bitcoin has nonetheless outperformed the broader crypto market, with Ether down over 25% and XRP nearly 20%, signalling defensive rotation as capital favours BTC over higher‑risk tokens.
That said, the ‘crypto king’ remains under pressure into July, with total market value near $1.18 trillion, down from over $4 trillion in early October, effectively rummaging for a fresh bottom. This follows a decisive break below the market bottom formed in February around $60,000, with prices stabilising near $58,700, after dropping to a fresh 21‑month low at $57,793 intraday. Broadly, the price action remains pinned within a $58,000-$60,000 range, reflecting sustained selling pressure as investors seem to reduce exposure rather than buy the dip.
ETFs bleed record billions in June as investors exit
June proved particularly weak, with Bitcoin falling over 20%, its sharpest monthly drop since 2022. Meanwhile, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $4.5bn in outflows, the most since funds launched in 2024, breaking the pattern of prior corrections where institutional inflows stabilised prices.
This time, sustained redemptions point to distribution rather than accumulation. That said, market signals do not yet indicate a full deleveraging event – funding rates remain relatively stable, open interest has not collapsed, and trading volumes have not spiked in capitulation-style fashion – suggesting these outflows have yet to signal a structural exit from the market, though persistent weakness reflects growing caution.
What’s behind the fall? New strategy ‘monetisation plan’ offers limited support
Crypto’s divergence from equities (most pronounced in Q2 as mentioned above) highlights a clear split in market leadership, as ETF outflows, higher‑for‑longer rates – which shift capital away from non‑yielding assets like cryptocurrencies – and geopolitical tensions weigh on demand.
Concerns around Strategy, the largest corporate buyer, have added to the pressure, with investors reconsidering earlier confidence in its financing model, raising doubts over its role as a consistent buyer. The firm’s shift toward monetisation, under its new capital plan – including potential Bitcoin sales, buybacks and funding its USD reserve – signals liquidity strain. While these measures aim to stabilise the balance sheet, they provide little to none broader market support.
Looking ahead, Fed policy remains the key driver, with markets pricing tightening risks as early as September. Thursday’s US jobs data is the next key catalyst, with the rate outlook continuing to weigh on crypto – just as it has on gold, increasingly linking the two assets.
Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold increases, tracking its weakness
Especially since the Iran conflict, Bitcoin’s behaviour has shifted notably. Previously trading alongside equities, it is now clearly decoupling from the Nasdaq, with correlation near zero (-0.02, as illustrated in the chart; source: LSEG).
At the same time, its rising positive correlation with gold (moderate at ~0.50) highlights growing alignment with macro and safe‑haven dynamics. This marks a meaningful shift toward liquidity‑ and rates‑driven trading rather than pure risk sentiment.
That said, Bitcoin is not fulfilling its preferred “digital gold” narrative, instead it is mirroring the precious metal’s current “fall from grace”, as both non‑yielding assets struggle to hold key support amid limited catalysts.
‘Crypto president’? Trump cashes in on crypto boom – where are the customers’ yachts?
In another sentiment headwind, US President Donald Trump reportedly generated over $1.4bn from crypto ventures, primarily via $635m in memecoin royalties (CIC Digital) and roughly $500m from token sales through World Liberty Financial, his flagship crypto business.
These ventures were the largest contributor to his 2025 windfall, outpacing traditional income streams such as real estate and resorts. However, while profits were driven by issuance and inflows, outcomes for participants were far less favourable, with tokens falling sharply post‑launch – highlighting the disconnect between early monetisation gains and broader market outcomes.
Bitcoin slips below long-term support
Technically, Bitcoin is trading below its 200‑week moving average – often associated with prolonged bear phases – for the first time in three years, since October 2023. The price is stabilising near $58,800, with key resistance at $60,000 and stronger resistance around the SMA at $62,500.
Support lies near $52,500, followed by deeper downside toward $49,400. The RSI remains flat above oversold levels, suggesting a pause in selling pressure, but no confirmed reversal yet.
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