GBP/AUD Rate Today: Trade Deficit Fears, RBA Bets Weigh On Aussie

The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate pushed higher on Wednesday as disappointing Australian growth figures and a more cautious market mood weighed on the ‘Aussie’.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading around AU$1.8784, up roughly 0.2% on the day.

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure after Australia’s latest GDP report revealed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in economic growth during the first quarter of 2026.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the economy expanded by just 0.3% in the first quarter, slowing significantly from the 0.9% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2025 and falling short of forecasts for a 0.5% increase.

Investors were particularly concerned by the composition of the report, which showed growth was heavily reliant on private investment in data centres, while household spending and government consumption remained subdued.

The weaker growth figures reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may be less inclined to deliver further interest rate increases later this year.

Additional pressure came from a deterioration in global risk sentiment as fresh military exchanges between the US and Iran increased investor caution and reduced demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) drew modest support from an upward revision to the UK’s final services PMI.

The survey was revised higher from 47.9 to 49.3, suggesting the downturn in activity during May was less severe than initially feared.

While the reading remained below the key 50 threshold and still pointed to contraction, investors took some comfort from the improved revision.

Businesses continued to cite disruption linked to the Middle East conflict and elevated energy costs as factors weighing on demand and confidence.

GBP/AUD Forecast: Australian Trade Data and Bailey Speech in Focus

Looking ahead, Australian trade figures could provide the next major test for the Australian Dollar.

Economists expect Australia to record a second consecutive monthly trade deficit as exports continue to weaken.

Another disappointing trade report may reinforce concerns about slowing economic momentum and add further pressure to the ‘Aussie’.

For Sterling, investors will focus on comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Recent remarks from Bailey have generally struck a cautious tone on interest rates, and any suggestion that policymakers remain comfortable waiting before tightening policy further could limit support for the Pound.

Broader market sentiment and developments in the Middle East are also likely to remain important drivers for GBP/AUD as investors continue to monitor geopolitical risks.