GBP/JPY’s steep decline last week indicates medium term topping at 216.58, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But as a temporary low was formed at 210.43, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 214.70) holds. Below 210.43 will target 209.58 support first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 216.58 at 204.28.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.16) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.80) holds.
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