GBP/JPY’s extended decline last week suggests that rebound from 210.43 could have completed at 215.59 already. Initial bias stays mildly on the downside this week for 211.23 support first. Firm break there will target 210.43. On the upside, above 214.04 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 207.11) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.82) holds.
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