The NZDUSD briefly pushed above the May high at 0.5889, reaching 0.5893, but the breakout lacked momentum and quickly faded. That failure to attract sustained buying interest set the stage for a more bearish tone heading into this week.
On Monday, the pair moved sharply lower before finding support in a key swing area between 0.5918 and 0.5928. Tuesday’s price action was largely consolidative, with buyers defending that support zone. However, today’s rally attempt stalled just ahead of the 100-hour moving average at 0.5938, with the high reaching only 0.5935. When buyers failed to regain control above that level, they quickly turned into sellers.
The subsequent move lower broke below the swing-area floor at 0.5918 and extended through the 200-hour moving average at 0.59024. That break added to the bearish momentum and encouraged further selling pressure. The decline has now reached the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the early April low to the May high, which comes in at 0.58704. So far, buyers have managed to defend that retracement level.
The key battle now centers on the area between the 38.2% retracement at 0.58704 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.59024. A move back above the 200-hour moving average would help stabilize the pair and give buyers a foothold. However, given the failed breakout above the May high, the rejection at the 100-hour moving average, and the break below key support levels, the near-term technical bias remains tilted in favor of the sellers.
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