Jun 4, 2026
In a recent interview, economist Thorsten Polleit discussed his new role on the board of Elementum International AG and shared his outlook on precious metals and the global monetary system. The conversation was conducted by Stephan Bogner, managing director of Elementum International AG, and published on June 4, 2026.
Polleit, who became a board member in May 2026, explained that he accepted the mandate after being approached by Bojan Pravica and his friend Professor Philipp Bagus, who has served as board president for many years. Polleit noted that Elementum International AG is a family-run company with a clear focus and that offering gold and silver storage in Switzerland represents a major competitive advantage.
Reflecting on his decades of experience in monetary theory and precious metals, Polleit said that while much has changed, his core recommendation to hold gold and silver as a form of insurance with upside potential has remained consistent. He added that he is now more confident than in the past that precious metals prices will continue their upward trend, citing his experience as an economist at a leading international investment bank and a deeper understanding of the credit and monetary system’s structural problems.
Polleit warned that digitalization, while beneficial in lowering transaction costs, also carries risks such as power outages, cybercrime, and bank failures. He emphasized that physical gold and silver in coin and bar form carry no counterparty or default risk and are not dependent on bank or exchange opening hours, making them valuable for risk diversification even in an increasingly digital financial world.
On the macroeconomic situation, Polleit described the current global system as a fiat money regime that is inflationary, promotes inequality, drives over-indebtedness, and expands state power at the expense of individual freedoms. He characterized the present stability as apparent, a calm before the storm, and identified inflation and currency debasement as the biggest problems for investors, likely to worsen if states resort to money creation to pay debts during a crisis.
Regarding gold’s recent record highs, Polleit confirmed that the long-term upward trend remains intact. He noted that gold in U.S. dollars has risen 94 percent and silver 135 percent over the last two years, pushing prices into unknown territory. A correction began around the end of January 2026, but Polleit expects it to end soon. He stated that the last two years have led to a permanent revaluation of gold and silver relative to stocks, bonds, and real estate, making a return to the previous upward price path very likely.
Polleit recommended that investors hold both gold and silver as liquid assets, with allocation depending on market phases: a higher gold allocation during booms and a higher silver allocation during busts. He described the gold-silver ratio as a particularly interesting indicator, noting that while gold has outperformed silver over the long term, there have been windows of opportunity for silver to generate higher returns. He cautioned against using the ratio as a sole indicator and advised cross-checking it with other analysis results.
On central bank gold purchases, Polleit said the main signal is that many non-Western central banks are seeking to reduce dependence on Western fiat currencies, particularly after the freezing of Russian currency reserves in February 2022. He argued that Western currencies, effectively under Washington’s control, carry both inflation and political risk, and that rising economies aim to shake off Western hegemony while maintaining sovereignty over their own fiat currencies.
Polleit warned savers holding assets exclusively in bank deposits that they face negative real interest rates, fees, and default risk. He noted that German households and companies hold 4.5 trillion euros in sight, time, and savings deposits, and that deposit guarantee schemes may not be sufficient in a major crisis involving many institutions simultaneously.
Discussing Switzerland as a storage location, Polleit highlighted its long-term stability, legal certainty, and trust. He cited over 200 years without war, consistent neutrality, direct democracy, strong property protections, an independent judiciary, and high hurdles for expropriation. He added that Switzerland only provides information in cases of specific, court-justified suspicions, unlike many EU countries.
Polleit, who is president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute Germany and a representative of the Austrian School of Economics, outlined four key insights from that school: monetary theory explaining the problems of fiat money; market and price theory showing that free markets best improve welfare; the theory of state interventionism, which he said shows that state actions create rather than solve problems; and epistemological contributions that expose false claims in mainstream economics.
As a board member, Polleit said he will fulfill duties under Swiss law, including control, supervision, and advisory activities, and will support management and employees. He sees enormous international market potential for Elementum International AG, as many investors seek high-security storage for gold and silver.
Looking ahead five to ten years, Polleit outlined possible scenarios: high inflation from attempts to preserve the fiat system, leading to price controls and expropriations; a collapse of the fiat system causing recession and deflation; or a mixture of both. He added that productivity surges and policy changes could mitigate extremes, but considered significant devaluation of fiat currencies very likely.
For long-term asset protection, Polleit advised against trusting fiat money, avoiding money market funds and government bonds, diversifying across banks and countries, investing in corporate stocks with inflation-resistant business models, generating regular income, and holding gold and silver as reliable means of payment that cannot be devalued by inflation or credit defaults.
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