Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures tread water while crude oil sinks in wait for Iran-US deal update

Yahoo Finance’s David Hollerith reports:

As the AI boom spurs activity across almost every corner of Wall Street, bankers are coming out on top in compensation hikes.

“The big banks had a very good 2025. They’re doing at least as well, if not better, this year, and pay will be up significantly,” Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, said in an interview.

“They’re going to be pay leaders for the first time in probably a decade,” Johnson added.

About half of Wall Street workers are expected to see some increase in compensation in 2026. IPO and M&A bankers are estimated to see the biggest jumps, up as much as 20% from last year, according to first quarter compensation projections from consulting firm Johnson Associates.

Read more here.

On Tuesday, SEC Chair Paul Atkins introduced a proposal that would give public companies the option to file a new Form 10-S every six months instead of the traditional Form 10-Q every quarter.

But as Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports, doing away with quarterly reporting by companies could come with a few negative consequences.

“One unintended consequence could be for a greater shorter term influence of macro data and inputs,” Citi strategist Scott Chronert warned in a note on Thursday. “That is, against a backdrop of less frequent fundamental disclosures, markets may be more inclined to trade stocks relative to perceived sensitivity to economic and monetary inputs. In some cases this could create shorter term inefficiencies.”

Chronert added, “We would expect that the sell side will need an adjustment period. Here, there is risk of inefficiency where analyst models are updated less frequently. The same issue will affect us from an equity strategy perspective. Simply, full year and next twelve month estimates are at risk of getting stale, if not inaccurate, in a two vs four reporting cycle circumstance.”

Read more here.

Yahoo Finance’s Myles Udland writes:

The stock market has surged to record highs, and the names doing most of the work to get us there are coming from one industry: semiconductors.

In a note to clients Wednesday morning, the team at Bespoke Investment Group noted the recent rally in semis is “one of the most epic runs in history.”

… As a group, Bespoke noted that the Philly Semiconductor Index is 56% above its 200-day moving average.

For readers who aren’t technically inclined, the 200-day moving average is the average price of an asset over the last 200 trading days, or roughly 10 months, and can best be thought of as where the long-term trend for something — a stock, an ETF, an index — sits. Moves far above or below this level indicate prices that may be overheated or oversold.

Anything trading 56% of its 200-day moving average, in other words, is on a historic heater. The only other two times the group was this far above its 200-day were July 1995 and March 2000.

Read more here in the takeaway from today’s Morning Brief.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is not just beating Q1 earnings expectations. It’s blowing them up., writes Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre.

Here’s why that may not be all good news, from the Chart of the Day:

This earnings season is shaping up as one of the index’s strongest in 20 years, with profit growth accelerating, beat rates running hot, and analysts lifting estimates instead of cutting them.

That’s the good news.

The catch is that Wall Street may already be treating great earnings as the new floor.

Deutsche Bank is calling this “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years,” and the charts show why. The share of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates is running well above normal, while quarterly profit growth is tracking near 25% — more than double the typical pace outside recessions.

… The bigger tell is what is happening to future earnings estimates.

Read more here.

Reuters reports:

Space analytics firm HawkEye 360 has raised $416 million in its U.S. initial public offering, ‌the company said on Wednesday.

The Herndon, Virginia-based firm ‌sold 16 million shares priced at $26 apiece in the IPO, giving it ​a valuation of roughly $2.42 billion. It had targeted a price range of $24 to $26 per share.

After a strong April, IPO activity is expected to pick up in the coming months, ‌with HawkEye 360 ⁠and Suja Life set to test investor demand for defense technology and consumer brands, respectively.

HawkEye ⁠will also gauge appetite for space-technology offerings, as investors await a public filing from SpaceX that could bolster confidence among ​peers to ​pursue listings and tap ​equity markets.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Gold (GC=F) steadied after its biggest daily advance since late March as traders assessed the optimism of a US-Iran deal to the end the war that has sent oil prices plunging and eased inflation concerns.

Bullion traded around $4,690 an ounce, after jumping 3% on Wednesday. Falling energy prices weighed on bond yields, while the dollar fell to pre-war levels, tailwinds for gold that’s priced in the US currency and doesn’t offer interest.

Iran is evaluating a fresh proposal from the US to end the near 10-week conflict, according to a person familiar with the matter, as China added its voice to global pressure to wrap up the war.

President Donald Trump has indicated on multiple occasions throughout the conflict that a deal is near, though none has materialized. He said on social media on Wednesday that the US will end its military campaign and lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”

Read more here.