GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound after Mixed UK, US Data

– Written by


Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound after Mixed UK, US Data

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate struggled to find momentum on Tuesday, as a mixed batch of UK and US economic releases left investors without a clear trading signal.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3272, broadly unchanged from Tuesday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to find a firm direction on Tuesday, as the UK’s latest growth data gave Sterling investors little clear cause for optimism.

Figures showed that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, confirming Britain as the strongest-performing G7 economy across the period.

However, the positive first-quarter reading was offset by signs of weakness elsewhere. Fourth-quarter GDP for 2025 was revised lower, from 0.2% to 0.1%, while the economy shrank by 0.1% in April.

This suggested that growth momentum may already have faded heading into the second quarter, leaving the Pound unable to capitalise on the headline GDP figure.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) traded on a mixed footing against the Pound, after strengthening overnight as a cautious market mood lifted demand for the safe-haven currency.

However, improving sentiment during the European session capped the US Dollar’s gains and left the ‘Greenback’ struggling to build momentum.

USD then softened later in the day as investors assessed the latest US economic releases.

The JOLTS report revealed a surprise rise in job openings in May, but this was overshadowed by a disappointing consumer confidence reading. The index fell short of forecasts in June, printing at 91.2 rather than the expected 94.7, while May’s figure was revised down from 93.1 to 90.6.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Federal Reserve and Bank of England Speeches in Focus

Looking ahead, USD investors are likely to turn their attention to a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday.

Markets will be watching for any signals on the outlook for US monetary policy. If Warsh delivers a more hawkish message, the US Dollar could attract fresh support.

The latest US ISM manufacturing PMI may also shape USD movement. An improvement in June’s factory activity could offer the ‘Greenback’ a modest lift.

For the Pound, focus will shift to a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday afternoon.

If Bailey continues to sound cautious on the possibility of further interest rate rises, Sterling could come under pressure.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts