- An analysis said Bitcoin has entered a new bull-market phase after surging 24% in a week.
- CryptoQuant said its on-chain Bull Score, apparent spot demand, and demand in both spot and futures markets are all signaling strength, indicating Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a new bull market.
- Still, a break above the $83,000 365-day moving average is needed for formal bull-market confirmation, while a 20.5% unrealized profit margin, $614 million in whale realized profits, and rising exchange inflows could increase short-term profit-taking pressure.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has entered a new bull-market phase after surging 24% in a week, according to a CryptoQuant analysis.
In a report published on Aug. 25, Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, wrote that Bitcoin has climbed 24% since Aug. 17 and shifted into a new market regime. Valuation, demand and liquidity indicators have all turned bullish.
The rally was driven by fiscal and policy developments in the US. The Treasury said it will double the minimum size of each long-term Treasury buyback to $4 billion starting Sept. 9. Bitcoin then reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since May 15 after US President Donald Trump signaled the government could buy the token.
On-chain indicators also point to a bullish turn. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score jumped to 80 from 30 in a week, the highest since Oct. 6 last year, when Bitcoin traded at $124,000. Eight of the 10 indicators that make up the Bull Score are now flashing bullish signals.
Demand is also recovering quickly. Bitcoin’s apparent spot demand is posting its fastest monthly increase since late December last year, while demand in both spot and futures markets is rising at the same time for the first time since early October last year. Moreno said that supports the view that Bitcoin is in the early stage of a new bull market. Still, a daily close above the 365-day moving average, now around $83,000, is needed to formally confirm the shift.
Near-term overheating signals remain a risk. Traders’ unrealized profit margin has risen to 20.5%, the highest since June last year. On Aug. 20, whales’ realized profits hit a record $614 million in a single day. Rising exchange inflows of Bitcoin, Ether and XRP also suggest short-term profit-taking pressure could build.
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